“We’re the only measure of who is actually voting.”
–Joe Lenski, Edison Media Research:

Who’s ahead in the election?

How close is it?

Who won?

On election night, we are glued to the media, breathlessly following election projections, tallies and predictions as they build toward and finally they culminate in the announcement of who will be our next president.

Our moods rise and fall with the numbers, all quickly yet carefully calculated to forecast the result as the actual votes are being tallied.

These forecasts break down voters’ personal choices not only by where they reside, but by their age, race, gender, education, income and party affiliation, but other identifying characteristics.

For example, a November 7 Associated Press story on CBSNews.com titled “Poll Data Doesn’t Reflect Bradley Effect,” stated that:

“Whether whites supported Barack Obama or not, they don’t seem to have lied to pollsters about it. Obama’s election triumph on Tuesday presented no evidence of the so-called Bradley effect, in which whites who oppose a black politician mislead pollsters about whom they will vote for … The phenomenon is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who in 1982 lost the race for California governor after leading in the polls. There were similar contests over the following decade in which black candidates facing white opponents had comfortable leads in polls, only to los or narrowly win the elections.

“Obama, who will become the first African-American president, defeated Republican John McCain on Tuesday by 52 percent to 46 percent with nearly all votes counted … Pre-election polls by Quinnipiac University, Mason-Dixon and AP-GfK all showed Obama ahead by 2 percentage points in Florida, which the Democrat won by 3 points. The combined estimate for Pennsylvania by www.pollster.com put Obama up 8 points, and he won by 11.

“None of this means race was not a factor on Tuesday. White nationally preferred McCain by 12 percentage points, while 95 percent of blacks backed Obama, according to exit polls. Seven percent of whites said race was important in choosing a candidate, and they backed the Republican 2-1.”

Where do these numbers come from? And if voting is anonymous, how are the media able to report on who voted for whom?

Election projection and results are compiled mainly from exit polls, a quick series of written questions posed to voters as they’re leaving the polling place. The questions are a quick, representative way to gather data on who is voting, whom they voted for and why.

‘The Only Measure’

The major news organizations base their election night forecasts on exit poll data supplied by Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International (EMR), which conducts all exit polling and election projections for CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox and the Associated Press.

It is a collaborative process.

According to CNN.com, “To project elections, CNN and its election experts use scientific, statistical procedures to make estimates of the final vote count in each race. CNN will broadcast a projected winner only after an extensive review of data” from The Associated Press, which provides totals for each race gathered from “stringer” reporters based in each county or other jurisdiction where votes are tabulated, and Edison Media Research.”
“They pool their resources, they hire us to conduct the exit polls,” said Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President and Co-Founder of EMR, based in Somerville, New Jersey.

The news organizations maintain editorial control by writing the questions, determining how many precincts and interviews that EMR conducts in each state. “We randomly [choose] the polling locations to represent that state, and then we interview the people that show up to vote,” Lenski explained.

In the 2008 Presidential Election, “We are actually talking to well over 100,000 voters in over 1,300 polling locations around the country, randomly chosen to represent both the geographic and political spectrum of voters,” said Lenski.

“We’re the only measure of who is actually voting.”

Lenski and EMR successfully conducted a record number of exit polls in 39 states and Puerto Rico for the 2008 primary elections, the busiest in the history of exit poll research. Then they geared up to tackle the exit polling for this year’s Presidential Election, one of the largest single-day survey research projects ever conducted.

Ensuring Representation

Ensuring a balanced perspective is key to providing credible information.

On Election Day, EMR interviewers are stationed outside of the representative precincts. “We’re picking a random sample of polling places and we make sure the precincts represent the cities and suburbs, the geography of that state,” Lenski said.

“Within those areas, we also pick precincts based on past voting history: Democratic, Republican, etc., so when you put the precincts together, it represents the state geographically and politically.

The interviewers count the people coming out after voting, working to interview every second or third voter, depending on the precinct size. Voters who opt in are given clipboards with questionnaires to fill out on the spot.

Each questionnaire includes about two dozen questions, average, and is private, confidential, with no names recorded.

“We ask some basic demographic questions like age, gender, race, education and income, who they voted for, and opinion questions like the most important issue or qualities of the candidate that were most important to them,” Lenski explained.

“Then we fold up the questionnaire and put it in a box outside the polling place,” he said. Throughout the day, the interviewer reads the results to EMR operators over the phone. “And that’s the data you’ll see that evening on TV,” Lenski said.
When EMR’s data comes into CNN, foe example, vote tallies prepared by local officials become more complete as more precincts report vote returns. “The county or township vote is put into statistical models, and EMR makes estimates and projections using those models. In addition, CNN will be monitoring the Web sites of the Secretaries of State offices to help analyze the outcome of early voting and absentee voting,” according to CNN.com

EMR polled early voters in the weeks leading up to Election Day. In the Oct. 29 article, “Exit Polls and Early Voting,” The New York Times reported that, “With millions of people taking advantage of early voting in states across the country, election experts have been examining the data.

“Joe Lenski … of Edison Media Research … said the group has already expanded its plans for telephone surveys of early voters to 18 this year from a dozen states in 2004. Beginning this week through the weekend, Edison/Mitofsky will conduct random phone surveys … asking detailed questions of people who actually say they voted early,” CNN.com reported.

Race Matters

As for the role of race in the election of America’s first Black president, Lenski said that “we saw big increases in African-American turnout in the primary elections. You’re already seeing evidence of early voting … a higher proportion of African Americans are voting early and that’s something we haven’t seen before.”

There are 26.3 million African Americans of voting age in the United States, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). Recent reports from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies forecast that, based on voting patterns from the presidential primaries, African American turnout would increase by around 15 to 20 percent in the 2008 Presidential Election over the turnout in 2004, a national turnout for African Americans in the range of 65 to 70 percent.

Lenski talked about the Obama effect. “It seems this year there are two equal and opposite forces at work: whatever latent or hidden racism in people not wanting to vote for a Black candidate is there, and an increased enthusiasm among African Voters. We saw that in the primaries, and we’re seeing evidence of that in the early voting. It’s there, it’s small and it’s not always easy to measure. But the indication is there.”

Beyond the data is the real wisdom that Lenski seeks for his media clients and their audiences around the world. “We’re looking at numbers, but they are people,” he said.